Trump strengthens lead over Biden in swing states: new poll

Perhaps it’s a case of “consider the source,” but new statewide polling from Rasmussen Reports shows President Biden is poised to lose the battle at the ballot box if he’s still a candidate in November.

And if Biden goes down, the data shows, he will take the Democrats on Capitol Hill with him.

Donald Trump’s favorite pollster surveyed 5,605 likely voters in swing states from July 5 to 12, meaning the poll ended the day before a sniper attempted to assassinate a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday.

The poll included 1,101 likely voters in Arizona, along with 1,015 in Georgia, 1,025 in Michigan, 761 in Nevada, 1,041 in Pennsylvania and 1,020 in Wisconsin. Of those surveyed, 48% voted for Biden in 2020, and just 47% supported Trump’s re-election.

And from that the conclusion follows that in these states that will determine the Electoral College, everything is going in the direction of the Trump and Vance campaign.

It doesn’t matter whether a two-way race or a fringe candidate scenario is being polled — Trump has a comfortable lead either way. In the binary contest, Trump leads Biden 49% to 44%.

And in the narrow-candidate scenario, the lead is 6 points: 46% to 40%, with Robert Kennedy Jr. getting 7% support and no other candidate above 1%.

There are some differences between the states.

Trump leads Biden by 8 points in Nevada, suggesting that state is out of reach, but holds more modest leads of 4 points in Pennsylvania and 3 points in Wisconsin — two states that are absolutely crucial for Biden to win in November. Kennedy has his best showing in Georgia, where he takes 10% of the vote.

The course of the race results in interesting approval figures for the candidates of the major parties.

Both men are viewed very unfavorably by more than 40% of respondents, but Biden fares worse than the polarizing Trump: 45% to 41%. And the incumbent president doesn’t inspire the same positive sentiment as Trump either.

Overall, Trump is above water, with 50% approval and 49% disapproval. Biden, meanwhile, has 44% approval and 55% in the other direction.

And there are even more reasons to worry about Joe Biden and his supporters in this dataset.

While 64% of black voters in swing states say they support Biden in the two-way scenario, the incumbent president is headed for big losses among Latinos and whites.

Trump has 52% of the vote among white voters and 54% among Latino voters, while Biden is at 41% and 37%, respectively.

Trump is tied with Biden among voters under 40, has an 8-point lead among voters between 41 and 64, and a 5-point lead among seniors.

Biden’s deficit at the ballot box extends to lower ballot boxes.

Respondents to the poll voted more for Republicans than Democrats for Congress, 47% to 43%. This phenomenon helps explain why more than 30 Democratic members of Congress have called for Biden to suspend his campaign.

They are simply not ready to give up an otherwise close race for a candidate with serious flaws, and the data here confirms that.

In Rasmussen’s polls, all Democratic Senate candidates are ahead of Biden in every state.

The poll was sponsored by the Heartland Institute, a pro-free market think tank that is enthusiastic about the results.

“As this poll of the crucial swing states shows, things couldn’t be looking better for the Trump campaign. There’s no doubt that swing state voters were shocked to see President Biden’s debate performance in late June, which is why the tables turned so quickly. Right now, former President Donald Trump has a commanding lead in the swing states, while his approval rating has reached 50%. Republicans also have a solid lead in the lower-tier races, suggesting that 2024 could be a landslide victory for the GOP,” writes Heartland Editor in Chief Chris Talgo.

Biden’s campaign, for its part, says it will keep going as another tough week comes to an end.

“President Biden is excited to get back on the campaign trail as soon as possible,” said a memo from the campaign, which sent second gentleman Doug Emhoff to Arizona this weekend to meet with Black voters before attending the WNBA All-Star Weekend Skills Challenge and 3-Point Contest.

Meanwhile, as the president recovers from COVID, Trump and running mate J.D. Vance will hit the road. They’ll hold a joint rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan, on Saturday, followed by a rally in Vance’s hometown of Middletown, Ohio, on Monday.

From there, they will continue to attack swing states individually. Vance heads to Radford, Va., on Monday night. Trump plans an event in Charlotte, N.C., on Wednesday.