close
close

How the 20th round draft will change talent acquisition and development – ​​math will be involved

The Cubs drafted 80 players between 2021 and 2024. They didn’t sign three in 2021 and didn’t sign one in 2022. They signed all 20 last year, and they’re likely to sign them all this year. Now that the U.S. draft limit has dropped to 165, I got to thinking about how this new draft, this 20-round extravaganza, is going to impact how player development executives build an organization in the minors.

At the end of the 2024 and 2025 seasons, we’ll see a lot of draft picks from the 2017-2019 classes leave the roster. It’ll be a big number, including 34 from this year alone. The Cubs need to fill those holes.

All this season I’ve been talking about how the Cubs have been signing free agent pitcher after free agent pitcher. It’s almost like an old Bugs Bunny cartoon of guys getting signed to pitch. There was a point where the Cubs only had three of their 10 starters at Iowa and Tennessee that weren’t free agents. With Connor Noland going to Iowa, that means Tennessee has four free agent starters and Chris Kachmar.

If we do the math, and I know no one told you there would be math today, the Cubs have to fill 165 roster spots every year. If we break it down by affiliate, in a normal year, there are usually close to 30 players on a roster, including guys on the developmental list and the injured list. That leaves 35 for the Arizona Complex League, and that gives you a cushion of 10 prospects to get to 165. That’s not much of a cushion.

But when you start thinking about how all those players are acquired, there’s a bit more math to do. This probably isn’t that hard, but when you consider that the Cubs are going to bring in every player drafted for six years, that means they can draft a group of 20 players every year for six years (and they have to sign them all). The attrition rate of each draft class is usually about 3 guys per year.

Year 1 – 20
Year 2 – 17
Year 3 – 14
Year 4 – 11
Year 5 – 8
Year 6 – 5
Year 7 – They should be in the majors then. Should be the crux of the matter.

That gives you a total of 75 players. Then you need 90 more players. Wait! What? Where did I get those numbers?

This year is year 4 of the 20-round draft. Of the players still in the system who were drafted between 2021 and 2023, there are still quite a few left, 15 from 2021 in fact. The 22 class has 17 left. There are 19 Cubs from 2023, but several have spent most of the year on the IL. There are 11 left in 2019, 9 left in 2018. The 2017 class only has Luis Vazquez left. That’s a gradual progression, but the 2017-2019 classes came from a 40-round draft. Add all those numbers together and you get 73. Wow! My prediction isn’t that far off.

If you take players from the Dominican Republic, most people would think that there are enough guys because they sign 30 guys a year. But only 5 to 10 guys come to the United States each year. That’s not a big number. Most of them don’t make it to Myrtle Beach. Let’s figure that out. Let’s go to the middle range, to 7.5 x 6 = 45. Add that to the 73 and you get 118, well under 165.

What has happened with the draft is that a lot of guys don’t get to climb the ladder quickly. They miss specific levels where they can and should develop. We’ve seen that the quality of play in the Arizona Complex League sometimes looked a lot like high school. That’s mainly because they were playing high school the year before. There’s no more Short Season Class A to serve as a buffer to play at a higher level. Low-A might as well be called advanced rookie league.

As a result, teams are now relying more and more on college players because they no longer have the right tools and skill levels to develop HS players. The college players have 2-3 years of experience, which gives them a huge advantage over their HS teammates in A-ball.

I’ve talked about doubling or repeating levels before. It’s happening more in rookie ball and low-A now.

In this year’s draft, the Cubs took 17 college/JUCO guys and 3 prep bats. They didn’t take a single prep arm. None. Normally, prep arms take the longest developmental path.

It all boils down to this: Major League Baseball implemented a number of changes in Minor League Baseball in 2020 and 2021 that are now beginning to impact how teams acquire talent through the draft and free agency. And it’s also impacting the types of players teams develop going forward. We could continue to see an uptick in college players being drafted. And we could also see a steady stream of MiLB free agents filling roster holes. It’s likely that independent leagues and their affiliates will take advantage of the 165-roster limit.

I’ve had a front row seat and a dugout seat to see these changes take place over the last few years. Whether it’s moving from level to level, acquiring talent, and developing that talent, a lot has changed and continues to change as those 2017-2019 classes fade away. And if you add up the total number of free agents hitting the open market this fall, that’s 34 names. The Cubs only drafted 20 5 days ago. Add to that the 7.5 from the DSL. They need a lot more than 27-28 players.

That explains why the flood of free agents is increasing. Scouting those independent leagues will become more important once the 2017-2019 classes finish their contracts.