Best and worst cases for each NFL division ahead of 2024 training camps

Training camp for the 2024 NFL season has begun, and perceptions of each division’s ceiling and floor are all but set. The trick is figuring out whether to expect the best, the worst, or somewhere in between.

On paper, Roster X appears to have improved dramatically thanks to free agency and the NFL draft. Roster Y appears to have taken a significant step back due to retirements and players signing elsewhere. The national consensus may agree with those two types of situations as well.

And then we may still be hilariously wrong.

No matter how much research we do, the outcomes of an NFL season always vary widely.

While the following scenarios are subjective, the opinions—both positive and negative—are rooted in offseason discourse.

Best: Jets fly into deep playoff race

Last season, the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins made the postseason. The expectations for both franchises in 2024 remain the same, even as Buffalo traded wideout Stefon Diggs and Miami retooled its defense.

The wild card, however, is the New York Jets. Aaron Rodgers is set to return from his Achilles injury and the Jets appear to have a playoff-caliber roster around them. There is a distinct possibility that the AFC East will have three playoff qualifiers this season.

Worst: All hype, no substance

Now that the New England Patriots are embracing a rebuild, they probably won’t be able to win much. That would be a nice bonus in Foxboro.

But what if Buffalo’s skill-position group falters and Miami’s revamped defense has a rough year? You may have confidence in Rodgers’ health, but it’s not exactly controversial to say that coming back from a serious injury at age 40 isn’t easy.

I find it unlikely, but there is a way for the AFC East to send only its champion to the playoffs.

Best: Battle Royale, Part II

Yes, the Baltimore Ravens wrapped up the division last season with a week to go, so the drama was over before Sunday’s finale. Still, the entire AFC North finished with a winning record, as the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers also made the playoffs.

Why not do it again? (And let’s watch a championship-deciding game on Sunday night in Week 18.)

Worst: Big QBs collapse

Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson. On name recognition alone, it’s hard to beat the AFC North.

Jackson still has a shaky supporting cast, but the Burrow-led Cincinnati Bengals need to fix their early-season woes. Watson’s efficiency was subpar in Cleveland, and current Pittsburgh starter Wilson had a disastrous run with the Denver Broncos.

Again, the worst-case scenario is – by its very nature – supposed to be unlikely. That middle paragraph probably won’t all come true. Still, we can’t dismiss any of those sentences in isolation.

Dear: Youth = Excitement

AFC South veteran quarterback Trevor Lawrence turns 25 in October. Will Levis is entering his 25th season, while CJ Stroud (23) and Anthony Richardson (22) are also second-year players.

In theory, young QBs should be able to handle a learning curve. Stroud brushed that off in 2023, though, and both the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts bolstered their receiving corps for Levis and Richardson, respectively. Optimism is easy to find in those fan bases.

The division could send a second team to the playoffs for the first time since 2020.

Worst: Champion barely gets 10 wins

On the other hand, some fundamental negative points remain.

although I Don’t believe Stroud will suffer a sophomore slump, the Houston Texans’ schedule will be much tougher after a worst-to-first surge last season. Jacksonville fell apart in late 2023 and is certainly not a safe bet to bounce back as a playoff-bound team.

Levis still has a lot to learn in a new attacking game and Richardson must find the right balance between aggressive and reckless play.

Dear: Someone give Kansas City a run

We’re all sensible people here, right? We can all agree that the Kansas City Chiefs, the back-to-back reigning Super Bowl champions, enter the season as the overwhelming favorite in the AFC West.

But that doesn’t necessarily mean the Chiefs will win the title right away.

Jim Harbaugh has a habit of improving his team quickly, so the Los Angeles Chargers have the benefit of the doubt. Antonio Pierce has settled on a defense-oriented identity, and a competent offense could be a thorn in the Las Vegas Raiders’ side in 2024.

Worst: Chiefs run away again

Or, well, maybe the Chargers and Raiders are mediocre. Los Angeles has a troubling group of talented skill positions, and the QB situation in Las Vegas is less than ideal. Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos have begun a teardown.

In the last five years, four of KC’s division titles have come by three or more games. It could soon be 5-of-6.

Best: Third Playoff Candidate Emerges

The Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles have reached the playoffs for three straight years, and that streak, which is certainly worth discussing in 2024, is expected to quadruple.

The biggest question for the division is whether the New York Giants or Washington Commanders can join them. New York did so in 2022. Before that, however, the NFC East hadn’t sent a trio to the postseason since 2007.

If the Giants or Commanders succeed, it would be an admirable campaign for the division.

Worst: Top teams fall, giants don’t rise

Over the last two seasons, Philadelphia has a 25-9 record, while Dallas is one game behind at 24-10. The franchises have had 11-plus wins in both years.

But the Cowboys have endured an embarrassing playoff exit and have endured an oddly quiet offseason. Philly had a terrible end to 2023, losing veterans Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox to retirement. I don’t want to panic, but those are significant negatives that could lead to a less impressive division champion.

New York is about to determine whether Daniel Jones is indeed the long-term solution, and the answer may not be positive. Washington’s rebuild has a new coach and a rookie QB, so patience may be required.

The division has considerable potential, but the downside is clear.

Best: Lions and Packers and Bears, Oh My!

Not only did the Detroit Lions impress, the Green Bay Packers also managed to secure an unexpected place in the play-offs in 2023 with their youthful attack. Both teams are seen as strong contenders for the play-offs this season.

But they may not be alone. After drafting Caleb Williams and upgrading the skill positions around him, the Chicago Bears—who have a 10-win record in the last decade with straight losses in both playoff trips—enter the year with a solid foothold in the NFC’s wild-card discussion.

Worst: No real challenger in the NFC

Like the Patriots, the Minnesota Vikings are in the early stages of a rebuild. Flirting with a playoff berth would undoubtedly lead to a “house money” feeling. Chicago is not yet seen as a Super Bowl threat, despite its playoff hopes.

The worst-case scenario for the division is that neither the Lions nor the Packers take that proverbial step forward.

Last year, both organizations scared the San Francisco 49ers to death. The logical conclusion is that Detroit and Green Bay should be battling for an NFC title in 2024. If everyone fails to make it out of the Divisional Round, it would be a failure for the North.

Dear: Coaching changes create a revival

While the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers have new head coaches, all four NFC South franchises have hired new offensive coordinators. This division is full of fresh ideas in 2024.

And that could be something very beautiful.

Last season, the 9-8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers defeated the New Orleans Saints on a tiebreaker to win the division. Atlanta went 7-10, while Carolina turned things upside down with a 2-15 mark. Don’t expect a Super Bowl upset, but better coaching could make a big difference.

Worst: Another outburst of general mediocrity

Over the last decade, the NFC South has had a seven-, eight-, and nine-win champion, and the last two seasons have not shed a glorious light on the division either.

While optimism is nice, it’s harder to muster here. Carolina is in the midst of a rebuild, while New Orleans continues to throw average prospects into salary cap hell. Tampa believes Baker Mayfield’s rise wasn’t a fluke, and Atlanta is banking on Kirk Cousins ​​to make a successful comeback from an Achilles injury in his 36th season.

If you don’t think the South has a team that wins 10 games for the third year in a row, then I would definitely consider it.

Best: Two Wild-Card Threats

Barring a shocking collapse, San Francisco will head to the playoffs, likely as NFC West champions as well.

The more interesting story is the depth of the division. Aaron Donald’s departure stings the Los Angeles Rams, but this roster is still competitive. Mike Macdonald, the new head coach of the Seattle Seahawks, should have a positive impact on the defense, and a healthy season from Kyler Murray will likely benefit the Arizona Cardinals.

Is that enough for a few wildcard teams? A little tiebreaker luck might be crucial, but it’s not an unreasonable thought.

Worst: Niners win in disappointing division

Or, you know, the West implodes after San Francisco.

Cross-division matchups with the AFC East and NFC North present a tricky mix for a trio of teams already trailing far behind the Niners. The more Arizona, L.A. and Seattle cannibalize each other—as in, splitting their head-to-head matches—the wider the gap could become for San Francisco.

With the NFC East likely having one wild-card team and the NFC North potentially having two, this division could be limited to one playoff-qualifying team for the first time since 2017.