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Democrats No Longer Own Identity Politics

The Republican convention in Milwaukee was a masterpiece. After a divided primary, the GOP showed unbridled unity. The basic message — “Trump gave us more prosperity and security” — is compelling.

In 2020, Biden won more than 90% of the black vote; this year, support among African Americans has already fallen by a third. AFP via Getty Images

And Republicans wisely changed their tune, focusing on policy differences rather than ad hominem attacks. The GOP didn’t call Democrats Marxists; they argued that the left’s progressive economic and social policies have failed.

Meanwhile, after effectively suppressing the presidential primaries and any significant criticism of their candidate, Democrats have been left with a weakened, unpopular leader that voters don’t want.

They have also returned to their rhetorical torpor: arguing with an epithet. But “Trump is an existential threat to democracy” increasingly falls on deaf ears.

Amber Rose spoke at the RNC convention in Milwaukee last week. She was one of many prominent minorities who showed up to support Trump. Jasper Colt / USA TODAY NETWORK

As Democrats head toward an electoral cliff in November, America is poised for a political and cultural reorientation that could have generational implications. Virtually every poll shows the swings in the Sun Belt—North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada—out of reach for Democrats, leaving Biden’s only path to 270 electoral votes a narrow, improbable sweep of the Rust Best swing states. But he consistently trails in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

The usually reliably blue states of Virginia, New Hampshire and Minnesota are also participating.

At the heart of the Democrats’ problem — besides their candidate, of course — is a religious belief in a “Demography is Destiny” theory. First floated in the second Obama administration in 2012, the theory posits that Democrats can build a multicultural coalition of working-class and young people, as well as voters of color, by continually appealing to identity politics and welfare state patronage.

Trump’s performance at the RNC convention emphasized unity and inclusivity, rather than personal attacks and Biden bashing. AP

But it is more of a transactional profession than an ideological profession.

The Biden presidency has put the theory to the test, and the results don’t look promising. Democratic elites smugly boast about Biden’s legislative achievements on COVID stimulus, infrastructure and green energy — all of which came with massive deficits, Social Security expansion and industrial planning.

But voters don’t care about legislative performance. They see this record deficit spending as creating 20% ​​inflation, which has robbed them of any real income gains during the Biden years. They see job growth as largely government and healthcare jobs. They see EV mandates as sending working class jobs to the Chinese and hurting the economy, while accomplishing little on climate change.

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott is one of many well-known African Americans in Milwaukee touting Trump. ZUMAPRESS.com / MEGA

Democrats like to boast about their outreach to the working class, but recent polls show working-class voters now favor Trump by a whopping 17 percentage points.

In 2012, President Obama won the Hispanic vote 71 percent to 27 percent. Left-wing politicians and activists thought they could cement this advantage by using identity appeals to weak immigration enforcement. Some progressive Democrats even suggested abolishing ICE. But younger Hispanics didn’t bite.

Like rising numbers of black voters, young Hispanics appear increasingly drawn to Trump’s economic populist message rather than identity theft. Trump now ties with Biden for the Hispanic vote in the combined Wall Street Journal polling average.

Melissa Chapman of New York is a reflection of many American Jews, longtime Democratic Party members who are now defecting to Trump. Stefano Giovannini

In 2020, Biden won 92% of the black vote. Now, after nonstop calls for DEI initiatives that often increase deeply unpopular equity quotas for disadvantaged groups rather than closing achievement gaps, Biden’s black support stands at 68%, according to the WSJ average.

In 2016, 51% of young men identified with the Democratic Party; now that number is 39%. For the first time in decades, more young men identify with the GOP than with the Democrats. According to a recent New York Times/Siena poll, 84% of young voters think Biden is too old to be effective. Trump scores 24 points better on the same question.

Republicans are now showing signs of moving to the center, removing references to abortion and “traditional marriage” from their planks and platforms. Democrats show no signs of changing course. In 2013, 70% of Americans said the Republican Party was out of touch with reality, according to ABC/Washington Post polls. Tellingly, 62% of Americans now think Democrats are the ones who are out of touch with reality.

President Trump with his grandchildren in Milwaukee, where a wide range of ethnicities and demographics helped betray the notion that Americans of color are beholden to the Dems. REUTERS

There are signs of other larger cultural shifts afoot. The day after Trump’s assassination attempt, MSNBC executives took their show “Morning Joe” off the air, apparently assuming that its hosts and guests were more interested in activism than hard news.

The cover-up of Biden’s mental capacity by party leaders and the implosion of the left Demography is destiny theology could not only lead to a landslide victory for Trump in the fall — it could also signal a political and cultural shift of generational consequence. If so, Democrats and the left will have no one to blame but themselves.

Julian Epstein is the former Democratic chief counsel to the House Judiciary Committee.