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Nearly two-thirds of Democrats want Biden to withdraw, new AP-NORC poll finds

President Joe Biden speaks at the Prosperity Summit 2024, July 16, 2024, in North Las Vegas, Nevada. (AP Photo/Ronda Churchill, File)

BY DARLENE SUPERVILLE, AMELIA THOMSON-DEVEAUX AND EMILY SWANSON

WASHINGTON (AP) — Nearly two-thirds of Democrats say President Joe Biden should withdraw from the presidential race and let his party nominate another candidate, a new poll shows, undermining his post-debate claim that “mainstream Democrats” still support him even as some “big names” turn against him.

A new poll from the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, conducted as Biden tries to salvage his candidacy two weeks after his failed debate, also found that just 3 in 10 Democrats are extremely or very confident that Biden has the mental capacity to serve effectively as president. That’s down slightly from 40% in an AP-NORC poll in February.

The findings underscore the challenges the 81-year-old president faces as he tries to silence calls from within his own party to leave the race and convince Democrats he is the best candidate to defeat Donald Trump. The poll was largely conducted before the attempted assassination of Trump on Saturday at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. It is unclear whether the shooting affected people’s views of Biden, but the small number of poll interviews conducted after the shooting gave no early indication that his prospects were improving.

Meanwhile, as Vice President Kamala Harris comes under increased scrutiny amid debate over whether Biden should resign, the poll found her popularity is similar to his, but the share of Americans who have a negative opinion of her is slightly lower.

The poll offers some evidence that Black Democrats are among Biden’s strongest supporters, with about half of respondents saying he should stay in the race, compared with about 3 in 10 white and Hispanic Democrats. Overall, seven in 10 Americans think Biden should withdraw, with Democrats only slightly less likely than Republicans and independents to say he should make way for a new nominee.

“I have real concerns about his ability to hold office,” said Denver Democrat Andrew Holcomb, 27. “I think he’s just too old for the job, frankly.”

Janie Stapleton, a 50-year-old Democrat from Walls, Mississippi, took the opposite view, saying Biden is the “best candidate” for president.

People aren’t just disappointed with Biden as they consider their choices for this election season.

About 6 in 10 Americans want Trump to withdraw, but relatively few Republicans fall into that camp.

As for Biden, younger Democrats are likely to want him to drop out — and say they’re dissatisfied with him. Three-quarters of Democrats under 45 want Biden to drop out, compared with about 6-in-10 of older Democrats.

“I just think these two individuals are sad choices,” said Alexi Mitchell, 35, a public servant who lives in Virginia. She identifies as an independent Democratic-leaning candidate, and while she thinks Biden is likely mentally capable of doing the job, she worries that the erosion of support in recent weeks makes him a weak candidate no matter what. “If he doesn’t have control of his own party, that’s a fatal mistake,” she said. “He’s put us in a bad position where Trump could win.”

Despite the Biden campaign’s bullish talk ahead of the debate, the confrontation has only embroiled the president in deeper trouble. Democrats are slightly more likely to say they are dissatisfied with Biden as their nominee than they were before his faltering performance. About half are dissatisfied, up from about 4 in 10 in a June AP-NORC poll.

By contrast, most Republicans — about 6 in 10 — came out of the debate feeling very or somewhat satisfied with Trump as their nominee. Too few interviews were conducted after the assassination attempt to provide a clear picture of whether Republicans or Americans in general have moved further behind Trump since then.

David Parrott, a Democrat from Soddy-Daisy, Tennessee, wanted to give Biden the benefit of the doubt given the president’s age, but he still raised concerns about a possible second term.

“I don’t know if he can do it for another four years or not,” said Parrott, a 58-year-old retiree. “Shouldn’t he be taking it easy in his beach house?”

All the recent changes have made Americans much more likely to think Trump can win the 2024 election than Biden — 42% versus 18%. About a quarter thought the two men were equally capable of winning.

Even Democrats are fairly gloomy about their party’s prospects in November.

Only about a third of Democrats believe Biden is more capable of winning than Trump. About 3 in 10 think the two are equally capable of winning, and 16% say the Republican is more likely to win. Republicans, by contrast, overwhelmingly believe Trump is better positioned to win.

Trump also holds a lead over Biden when Americans consider who is best equipped to handle a crisis, 38% to 28%. And people are about evenly divided on which candidate has the best vision for the country, with 35% saying Biden and 34% saying Trump.

Despite all the disappointment Biden is facing, the president insists it’s not too late to turn the tide. He says previous presidents have come back from deficits at this stage in the campaign. In an interview with BET News on Tuesday, he said many voters aren’t focused yet, adding, “The point is, we’re just at the beginning of the game.”

The poll also offered a bright spot for Biden: 40% of adults say he is more honest than Trump, while about 2 in 10 think the opposite.

Most Democrats — about 6 in 10 — say Vice President Harris would make a good president, while 22% don’t think so and 2 in 10 don’t know enough to say. The poll found that 43% of American adults have a favorable opinion of her, while 48% have an unfavorable opinion. Slightly more people have an unfavorable opinion of Biden: about 6 in 10 Americans.

The poll, conducted before Trump chose freshman Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio as his running mate, found that Vance is still unknown to most Americans. Six-in-ten don’t know enough about him to form an opinion, while 17% have a positive opinion and 22% view him negatively.

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The poll of 1,253 adults was conducted July 11-15, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.