Will Seattle Seahawks WR DK Metcalf have a banner year in 2024 under Ryan Grubb?

Realistically, it’s highly unlikely that Metcalf will reach those heights, especially with the surrounding receiving talent on Seattle’s roster. But what are achievable numbers for Metcalf in 2024? Is the best season of his career a possibility without having him funnel targets outside of the scheme’s intent?

Please note: All statistics are from Pro Football Reference And Focus on professional football.

Before we predict Metcalf’s future numbers, it’s important to understand why his 2020 season has become such a standout in his career.

In 2020, Russell Wilson targeted a receiver 537 times, including 129 passes to Metcalf (24 percent target share). He caught 83 of those passes, earning a career-high catch rate of 64.3 percent.

At the time, Seattle’s receiving depth was extremely top-heavy. Together, Metcalf and wide receiver Tyler Lockett accounted for 48.6 percent of the team’s targets, while 12 other receivers, tight ends and running backs made up the rest.

Last season, Metcalf hauled in 66 receptions for 1,114 yards and eight touchdowns. Quarterbacks Geno Smith and Drew Lock combined to target receivers 545 times, with 119 of those going to Metcalf. That resulted in a career-worst throw rate of 55.5 percent for Metcalf, and his target share dropped to 21.8 percent.

With rookie wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the mix, Metcalf and Lockett received just 44.2 percent of the team’s total targets. While that may not seem like a huge drop from 2020, it’s a difference of about 24 targets that would have been split between the two.

If Smith-Njigba wasn’t on the team, let’s assume those targets would be split evenly between Lockett and Metcalf. As a result, Metcalf conservatively catches six on his 55.5 percent catch rate. At 16.9 yards per reception — his 2023 average — that adds 101.4 yards to Metcalf’s season total, bringing Metcalf’s total to 1,215 receiving yards on the year, which ranks 13th in the NFL instead of 17th.

Variation in catch percentage, target share, yards per reception, and total pass attempts affect these numbers dramatically, and all three can be almost entirely outside the receiver’s control. Quarterback play, scheme, and the strength of the opposing defense all play into these results, among other factors that come into play in an NFL football game. Metcalf had six drops last season and 11 in 2020, so that wasn’t the issue.

If you simply swapped Metcalf’s career-worst catch percentage from last season with his 2020 numbers and left everything else the same, he’d finish with 77 catches for 1,301 yards in 2023 — nearly matching his 2020 numbers. Sometimes, that’s the only difference between an above-average and elite season. The same goes for yards per reception and overall target share.

With all that in mind, the only way to project realistic numbers for Metcalf is to look at previous receivers in Grubbs’ scheme and hypothesize how he’ll perform in a similar role. Of course, that requires comparing NFL numbers to college production in this case, which is an imperfect model.

Odunze and Metcalf are also very different players stylistically, meaning Grubb will almost certainly adjust the X-receiver role to better suit Metcalf’s physical strengths and skills. But it’s not an apples-to-oranges comparison.

Odunze in 2023: 92 receptions (140 targets), 1,640 receiving yards (17.8 yards per catch), 13 TDs; 26.2 percent target share, 65.7 percent catch rate.

In Washington’s offense, Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk accounted for 46.4 percent of the team’s total targets last season. Seventeen other receivers accounted for the remaining 53.6 percent, with a significant portion going to wide receiver Jalen McMillan and tight end Jack Westover.

The biggest factor will be Metcalf’s total targets. With Lockett, Smith-Njigba, tight end Noah Fant and Seattle’s duo of pass-catching running backs also on offense, there are a lot of mouths to feed. He’ll still match Odunze’s volume, and Metcalf shouldn’t have a problem 130 goalsThat leaves plenty of room for Smith-Njigba, Lockett and lower-volume receivers.

Penix targeted receivers 535 times in 15 games last season. Adjusting that number to a 17-game season, that number comes to 606. That doesn’t account for dropped passes, and Smith won’t throw the ball more than 630 times in Grubb’s offense. The Seahawks’ running game has too much potential, and only eight NFL quarterbacks have topped 600 pass attempts last season.

A slight increase in volume from Smith and Lock last season to 560 passes aimed at a receiver is a realistic number. It’s easy to assume there will be more passing attempts in Grubb’s offense, since that’s where he had the most success with Washington, but the run game was just as crucial to making that success possible. With 130 targets, that puts Metcalf’s target share at 23.2 percent.

When you see how Metcalf was used in Shane Waldron’s offense last season and how Odunze was used in Grubb’s, a yards-per-catch metric of about 16 is more than realistic for Metcalf. There will be a balance of vertical routes and underpasses that get him into space.

Let’s also assume that Metcalf’s catch percentage comes closer to his career average, which puts him at 61 percent assuming the quarterback’s play remains stable.

Projections for 2024: 79 receptions (130 targets), 1,264 receiving yards, 9 touchdowns

No, this isn’t Metcalf’s most receiving yards ever, but it does put him back in contention for the big leagues and marks his best season since his sophomore season in the NFL.

These numbers are calculated directly from the statistics explained above. The touchdown total comes from Metcalf’s career touchdown percentage average of about 12. That number could certainly go up or down depending on who Grubbs’ favorite target in the red zone becomes.

Metcalf is a great fit for this new offensive scheme, and he will be rewarded for it. His total receiving yards would have ranked 12th among last year’s NFL leaders, and it could be enough to crack the top 10 in 2024.