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Opinion | Swing state data shows Biden trailing far behind his 2020 numbers

Jonathan Greenberg is an investigative journalist and CEO of Progressive Source Communications.

President Biden has resisted calls from leading Democrats and pundits to step aside and make way for a younger, stronger candidate. These calls are not a sign of disrespect toward Biden; they reflect a determination to defeat former President Donald Trump.

Biden’s inner circle of loyalists denies that polls show alarming weakness — but they are misreading the data. Comparing Biden’s position today to polls from four years ago reveals the president’s weakness. In the seven swing states where the election will likely be decided, Biden is trailing his 2020 numbers by as much as 14 points.

Considering that Biden’s 2020 Electoral College victory came in three states where his margin was less than a point, this double-digit erosion is a disaster in the making. As if those numbers weren’t bad enough, both 2016 and 2020 polls underestimated Trump’s strength.

In 2020, national polls just before the election predicted Biden would win by 8.6 points. He won by just 4.4. That history suggests the situation is even more lopsided than current polling data shows.