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Opinion | Kamala Harris may have a way to beat Trump if Biden withdraws

As of this writing, President Biden has not said he is withdrawing from the 2024 campaign. Democrats nevertheless appear ready to move on. In multiple appearances, including TV interviews and meetings with Democratic lawmakers, Biden has failed to convince them that he has what it takes to win the race, largely because the race has become about him — his age, his health, his ability. Every appearance has become a “Perils of Pauline” moment in which supporters steel themselves for a gaffe or a stumble. A race that should have been about Donald Trump has become about Biden’s weaknesses.

What would the race look like if Biden wasn’t the nominee?

For starters, the idea that someone without the Joe Biden and Kamala Harris campaigns — and without foreign policy experience, domestic vetting, or the advantage of competing on the strength of a sitting president’s record — could outpace the vice president to win the nomination is incomprehensible.

A random white governor without any of those advantages would have to be introduced to the American people, galvanize the party, and defeat all competition — all while ousting the first African-American and Asian-American female vice president? Beltway pundits can dream up all the scenarios they want, but if Harris isn’t the nominee, a Democratic Party meltdown is all but certain.

So let’s assume Harris were in the lead. What then? She could make this a very different race in a number of ways.

First, the 59-year-old, fit, energetic Harris would shed the burdens of Biden’s age and health from the party. Nearly 20 years younger than Trump (who would be 82 at the end of a second term), she would finally move the country beyond the baby boomer generation and embody a fresh, younger generation of Americans. Without Biden raising questions about his physical and mental fitness, the media might finally be able to focus on Trump’s unhinged tirades, compulsive lying, and utter lack of policy knowledge.

Second, rather than a referendum on Biden personally, Harris would shift the campaign to making a choice: between the successful, economically productive, progressive, inclusive record of the Biden administration and the fearsome, paranoid, authoritarian vision laid out in Trump’s speeches and the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, which could guide a second Trump administration. Harris could ask whether Americans want:

  • Technical experts in the departments and agencies who have served under presidents of both parties, who conduct research, make rules and enforce regulations on everything from safe medicines to safety laws to clean air and water. or a government in which 50,000 hand-picked loyalists, hired not for their expertise but for their loyalty to Trump (and who have sworn an oath of allegiance to him), make crucial life-and-death decisions?
  • Strong democratic alliances that support the defense of US national interests against tyrannical aggressors or someone who will bow down to Vladimir Putin and other dictators, abandon Ukraine and possibly abandon Taiwan?
  • An independent Federal Reserve with the dual mandate of maintaining full employment and keeping inflation low, or, as Project 2025 envisions, a central bank subject to the whims of politicians and stripped of its role as “lender of last resort”?
  • An administration that protects access to reproductive health care, does not discriminate against LGBTQ+ Americans (or other specific groups), and aggressively enforces voting rights, or an administration that wants to go beyond the Dobbs overturn decision Roe vs. Waderemove the abortion drug mifepristone from shelves, literally remove terms like ‘gender’ and ‘abortion’ from all laws and regulations, and infuse government policy with a Christian, male-dominated view of the family?

Third, Harris is far more articulate and concise than Biden, as she demonstrated when she dissected Trump’s agenda during an appearance in North Carolina on Thursday. In a similar vein, the vice president is a passionate and persuasive advocate for reproductive freedom (a topic Biden has been uncomfortable discussing), as is evident in dozens of her speeches and public appearances. She uses her experience as a prosecutor who tried sex crimes to criticize advocates of forced births for telling rape and incest victims that they “have no right or authority to decide what happens to their bodies.” (She says, bluntly, “That’s immoral.”)

Fourth, given her background as a prosecutor and her role on the Senate Judiciary Committee, Harris is uniquely positioned to take on a radical Supreme Court that is at its lowest level of approval in history. She has the verbal acumen, for example, to condemn the broad granting of criminal immunity to presidents, the dismantling of voting rights, and the substitution of expert judgments for judicial discretion in the administrative state.

Fifth, as Biden has seen his support among younger voters (including voters of color) decline, Harris has the energy to engage and enthuse them, as evidenced during her college tours, where she has spoken to packed audiences on issues that specifically affect their generation (e.g., gun violence, climate change, abortion rights).

And finally, Harris can inherit the mantle of international leadership (she has traveled the world, met with leaders and represented the U.S. at international conferences) without burdening Biden with personal criticism, rightly or wrongly, on a range of sensitive issues, including the war in Gaza. (On Israel, Harris is a staunch supporter of the Jewish state. Along with her Jewish husband, she has spoken out about Hamas’s abuse of Israeli women, but she is still willing to sound a cautionary note with Israel’s embattled prime minister.)

Yes, it’s impossible to gauge how a candidate will fare before she enters the race. Future polls won’t tell us definitively whether Harris wins more votes than she loses. But for Democrats despondent over the constant defensiveness they’ve found themselves in, she offers excitement, eloquence, effectiveness on important issues and, above all, the power to refocus attention on Trump’s significant character flaws, criminal record and troubling plans for the future. That’s more than Biden can do right now.