Cities and suburbs in red states are becoming more diverse • Pennsylvania Capital-Star

Growth in Asian, Black and Hispanic communities is transforming cities and suburban counties, particularly in red states like Florida, Indiana and Texas, according to a new Stateline analysis. The presidential swing states of Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania were also among the fastest-changing states.

Nationally, the share of nonwhite population grew in 47 states between mid-2020 and mid-2023, according to the analysis of U.S. Census Bureau estimates released in June.

Nevada had the biggest change, with its nonwhite population — mostly Hispanic — growing 2.3 percentage points to 54.3% of the population. The growth in Black residents pushed Georgia toward a nearly nonwhite majority, up about 1 point to 49.9% of the state’s population, amid continued Black migration that helped swing the state’s 2020 vote Democratic for president and the U.S. Senate.

Hispanic population growth was the dominant factor in all states, in blue and red counties and in rural and urban areas, according to the Stateline analysis. Hispanic growth is partly due to immigration, but mainly due to higher birth rates, the Census Bureau said in a news release.

Only three states — Montana, South Carolina and Tennessee — and the District of Columbia have seen growth in their white population share since 2020.

The rise in Hispanic and Black populations — and where it’s happening — could shape the outcomes of the 2024 presidential election and local and state elections, though the political loyalties of these groups have shifted recently. Black voters have long been considered Democrats’ most enthusiastic supporters, but their support has been waning somewhat. And Republicans are making inroads among Hispanic voters.

Many of the biggest changes have been driven by the migration of black and Asian people to cities and suburbs in job-rich red states. The economy is booming by almost every national measure, and the availability of jobs outside the big cities has become a major magnet.

That includes Indiana’s Marion County, home to Indianapolis, and Kaufman County, Texas, a suburb of Dallas, where Black population growth helped create new nonwhite majorities starting in mid-2023. In Kaufman County, the Black population grew 6 percentage points to 23% and the Hispanic population grew 3 percentage points to 28%. Kaufman County elected its first African American county judge in 2020.

“We do have jobs here, and all of these counties are growing dramatically,” said Lloyd Potter, a Texas state demographer. Asian, black and Hispanic residents are moving to the suburbs of Dallas, he said, and of California and New York state. Meanwhile, the local white population is aging and declining, with more deaths and fewer births.

“These are some of the largest and most significantly growing metropolitan areas in the country, and (the new census data) indicate a tremendous diversification in the population. It’s been happening for a while, but it seems to have really accelerated in the last five years or so,” Potter said.

New messages, same politics

Kaufman County’s growing Black community remains a minority in a county that voted two-thirds Republican for president in 2020 and for governor in 2022. The county commission held hearings in 2021 on moving a Confederate statue near the front of the county courthouse but ultimately decided to do nothing.

“It’s very red here. It’s super red,” said James Henderson, a county resident who supported moving the statue. He said he sees more African Americans like himself moving to Kaufman County cities like Forney and working remotely for companies in Dallas. There are also more African immigrants, he said.

Whether increased racial diversity will lead to political change is an open question. Black migration to the Atlanta area in Georgia affected elections in 2018 and possibly 2020, but Republicans remain firmly in control of state governments there and in Texas.

The economy, inflation and health care are the top concerns among Latino voters in Pennsylvania.

The younger population is becoming more diverse, said demographer William Frey of the left-leaning think tank Brookings Institution. But the older population, which is growing as baby boomers age and are the most likely to vote, is still overwhelmingly white, he said.

Growth among Asians in Collin County, another Dallas suburb, and growth among Hispanics in Florida’s Duval County (where Jacksonville is located) have also contributed to these large counties having majority nonwhite populations since 2020.

Many of Collin County’s new residents are Telugu-speaking tech workers from southern India who have found an economic niche working remotely for Dallas companies, said Farhad Wadia, president of FunAsia radio stations in the area. Their presence is bringing subtle changes to the community, he noted.

New transplants often hold elaborate Hindu housewarming ceremonies, with milk boiled to the brim to symbolize prosperity. Shops cater to their tastes with spicy curries made with tamarind and sun-dried chiles.

“When you go to Costco here, you think you’re in South India,” Wadia said. “A lot of them come from California, where they could sell their 1,000-square-foot house for a million dollars and get more bang for their buck here.”

Growing diversity

Of the 16 counties that gained a majority of nonwhite residents between 2020 and 2023, five were in Texas. Most of the 16 counties voted Republican in 2020.

The counties involved were two each in California (Napa and Yuba, both near Sacramento) and New Mexico (rural Quay and Roosevelt), and one each in Alabama (rural Conecuh County), Kansas (rural Stanton County), Mississippi (Lowndes County, along the Alabama border), New Jersey (suburban Somerset County) and South Carolina (Florence County, near Myrtle Beach).

In Georgia, the Atlanta suburb of Henry County had the largest shift of any county outside of Texas, with growth in its black population fueling a 7-point increase in its nonwhite population to 69%. The county was already majority black in 2020; retired basketball star Shaquille O’Neal, who bought a home in the county in 2016, helps the local sheriff’s office with community relations and recently hosted a summer sports camp for youth.

The growth in the number of Hispanics also increased the share of nonwhite residents in the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that have not yet been elected to the presidential election.

In 2022, Pennsylvania’s Latino voters supported Democratic candidates for statewide office, with Josh Shapiro receiving 72% of the Latino vote for governor that year and John Fetterman receiving 68% of the Latino vote for U.S. Senate. In 2024, 21% of Pennsylvania’s Latinos will be running for president for the first time.

According to UnidosUS Hispanic Electorate Data Hub, there are 275,000 registered Latino voters in Pennsylvania.

In Liberty County, Texas, where Hispanic growth has contributed to a new 52% nonwhite majority — an increase of 7 percentage points since 2020 — schools are full of new Hispanic students, said Stephen McCanless, superintendent of the Cleveland Independent School District in Liberty County.

The district, where about 88% of students are Hispanic, grew from 10,000 to 12,000 students last school year and could reach 14,000 next year, he said.

The district has spent more than $17 million on portable classrooms since it began expanding in 2015, including $2 million in the past year, as bond issues to build more schools were rejected.

“There were some tough decisions that had to be made. I cut $7 million from the budget to be able to start the (next) school year without having to dip too deep into the fund,” McCanless said.

Capital-Star employees contributed.

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