National Republicans see Montana’s U.S. Senate seat as crucial to winning majority • Rhode Island Current

WASHINGTON — U.S. Sen. Steve Daines of Montana, who is tasked with turning the House from blue to red in November, said Tuesday that he expects his home state to play a key role in securing a Republican majority in January.

Daines, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said that of the four states that will determine control of the Senate, he believes Montana has the best chance of electing a new senator over the incumbent, Democrat Jon Tester.

“Of all the states we’re dealing with right now, this would be the most likely win right now, if you were to use the curve,” Daines said.

Republicans expect to win West Virginia’s Senate seat, currently held by retiring independent Joe Manchin III. But they need one more win to retain at least 51 seats in the 100-member chamber and secure a majority.

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter categorizes the races in Ohio, Michigan, Montana and Nevada as toss-ups, while the other Senate races are rated as at least Democratic or Republican-leaning.

Electoral trends

Daines expects the November election to follow a trend similar to 2016 and 2020, with the winner of the Senate race closely aligned with which presidential candidate wins in his or her state.

“The only exception, out of the 69 races in 2016 and 2020, that had Trump on the ballot, was Susan Collins — where Joe Biden won Maine, but Susan Collins won the Senate race,” Daines said, referring to former President Donald Trump, President Joe Biden and Maine’s current Republican senator. “History shows that in a presidential year, these races all start to look similar by the end of October, and then on Election Day, which is important, we’re going to be pretty close on the presidential ballots.”

Daines, who was attending a panel discussion with members of the Regional Reporters Association at the National Republican Senatorial Committee office in Washington, D.C., said the party is applying the lessons learned in 2022 to this year’s campaigns.

Democrats targeted their message “effectively” two years ago, while Republicans “had candidates who could win the primaries but who weren’t as attractive in the popular vote,” Daines said.

“And that’s why one of the key strategies here at the NRSC was to be intentional during the primaries,” Daines said, adding that he wanted fewer “wounds and scars” for the GOP candidates who won their primaries as they entered the general election campaign.

Daines doesn’t expect reproductive rights and democracy issues to play as central a role in how voters cast their ballots this year as they did in 2022.

“In ’22, the Democrats talked a lot about abortion and a lot about January 6th and the threat to democracy,” Daines said. “I think both of those issues will be less influential in the ’24 election.”

Specifically on abortion, he said the Republican Senate candidates “are sending a good message on this issue in their respective states.”

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman Tommy Garcia said in a written statement that “Senate campaigns are a battle between candidates, and Democrats will win the Senate because we have the best candidates in every battleground.”

“Steve Daines’ failure to vet his candidates has left Senate Republicans with deeply flawed recruits embroiled in an endless series of scandals: caught lying about their biographies, facing vulnerabilities stemming from their finances, and campaigning on a platform of deeply unpopular policies,” Garcia added.

Montana Focus

Daines expects Montana voters to favor Republican candidate Tim Sheehy over Tester in November, citing data from previous election years and the way people who recently moved to the state have registered to vote.

“We’ve had a net migration of center-right voters to Montana since Jon Tester was last on the ballot,” Daines said. “He won by 18,000 votes against Matt Rosendale in 2018. We’ve seen 100,000 new voters move to Montana since 2018. If you look at the voter rolls, by a 2-to-1 margin, they’re Republicans.”

Daines said he calls these transplants “COWs” because they are leaving California, Oregon and Washington to live in Montana — the first letters of each state. He also said they don’t plan to bring the blue-leaning politics of their former states to their new homes.

“These are refugees, not missionaries,” Daines said. “They’re moving to Montana to join us, not to change us. And so the political numbers are shifting in Montana; mathematically, it’s getting harder and harder for Jon Tester to win.”

Daines said the mid-July polls reflect what he experienced leading up to his last re-election.

“The polling data that we’re seeing with Tim Sheehy is exactly the same as the polling that I did with Steve Bullock four years ago by the same pollster,” Daines said, referring to the former Democratic governor who ran for Senate in 2020. “And we ended up winning by 10 points.”

When you combine that with the millions of dollars Democrats have spent on Tester’s re-election campaign, the Republicans’ chances are good, Daines said.

“(Senate Majority Leader Chuck) Schumer and Tester have thrown $45 million in negative ads at Tim Sheehy since last November,” Daines said. “We’ve never seen anything like this in a Senate race in the history of the United States, this early, and this much money spent. And the fact that Tim Sheehy is now deadlocked in the public polls is pretty remarkable.”

DSCC Chairman Gary Peters, a Michigan Democrat, told States Newsroom on Tuesday that he expects Tester to be re-elected.

“He’s wrong. He’s not going to overthrow Montana. Jon Tester is a strong candidate. He’s authentic. He’s going against a seriously flawed candidate that the Republicans have put forward. It’s clear that they didn’t do any vetting before they recruited him to recruit in Montana,” Peters said. “And people in Montana want someone who is authentic, who has lived in the state and understands the challenges that people in Montana face. And that’s Jon Tester.”

Nevada Battlefield

Daines also hopes the GOP can capture Nevada, where Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen faces a challenge from Republican candidate Sam Brown.

During the 2022 Senate race, he noted that Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto defeated Republican candidate Adam Laxalt by about 8,000 votes.

“It was the tightest Senate race of the cycle. That’s four votes per precinct,” Daines said. “That’s not lost, certainly not on either side of the ledger.”

If Laxalt had run in a presidential election year, when rural residents typically turn out in larger numbers than in midterm elections, Laxalt would have won a seat in the Senate, Daines said.

“If we look at more recent polls in Nevada, Rosen’s vote is very low. She’s in the low 40s. That’s a big red flag for a sitting president,” Daines said. “It also shows that there’s a lot of potential for Sam Brown right now.”

Michigan Race

In Michigan, where Republicans still have a chance to win and possibly expand a Senate majority, Daines says he’s not worried that negative ads from the Republican primary will hurt their prospects in the general election.

“You always worry about — whether you’re on the Democratic side or the Republican side — damaging primaries. And something that we’ve done at the NRSC in this particular election cycle is to intentionally support candidates early in the primaries,” Daines said. “And Michigan is an example of that.”

Both the NRSC and Trump supported GOP candidate Mike Rogers early on, he said.

“And so far this election cycle, there’s been $250 million less spent on Republican primaries compared to last cycle,” Daines said. “Democrats have spent $60 million more on their primaries compared to last cycle. And part of that is a strategy of getting our hands on candidates early and trying to minimize the primary fight.”

Daines wasn’t too concerned about recent polls showing Democrat Elissa Slotkin likely ahead of Rogers in the general election.

“It’s not a new phenomenon,” Daines said. “Generally speaking, we’re behind the curve.”

Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey hope

Daines has hope for GOP candidates in other states that traditionally send Democrats to the Senate.

In Maryland, he expects former Gov. Larry Hogan to have a shot at beating Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks for the open seat.

When Republicans gauged Hogan’s chances before he ran, he was more popular than when he left office, Daines said.

And while Daines said he knows Kamala Harris will likely win Maryland by “25 points or more,” he still expects Hogan to have a strong season.

“That’s not a new phenomenon for Larry Hogan. And so he’s going to run in this kind of idiosyncratic lane,” Daines said, noting that Hogan has distanced himself from Trump.

Daines tried to create some distance between the NRSC and the August 13 Republican Senate primary in Minnesota when asked about the candidates. However, he said he still stands by his earlier statement that Royce White cannot win the Republican Party primary or the general election.

“We’ll see how the Minnesota primary goes. Again, it’s coming up pretty quickly, mid-August,” Daines said. “But yes, I think Joe Fraser is going to be a more electable candidate, certainly in the general election.”

Whichever GOP candidate wins the primary, he will face Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar in the general election, who will be vying for a seat rated “solidly Democratic” by The Cook Political Report.

The recent conviction of Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey has also prompted Daines not to write off the state altogether, though the chances are slim.

Curtis Bashaw is a “very strong candidate,” he said.

“It’s a race we’re watching,” Daines said. “Obviously, when you have an open seat, it’s a chance. And with Menendez’s issues, that doesn’t help in general.”

Menendez is not seeking re-election and will retire from the U.S. Senate in August. Democratic Rep. Andy Kim, pictured cleaning up trash at the U.S. Capitol after the Jan. 6 attack, was chosen as the Democratic nominee.

The Cook Political Report rates the race as “Solid Democrat.”